Confessions of a Real Estate Bear

On Friday, during my daily morning "warm-up-for-work-by-surfing-the-web" routine, I saw a headline that I've been anticipating for a very long time. Most Vancouverites probably never expected to see this in their happy-go-lucky lifetime. But it's now true: Vancouver benchmark house prices are lower than this time last year.

Some key stats released last week:
* The benchmark price for September 2008 was 1.6% lower than September 2007 and now stands at $726,331.
* Prices for the detached-house benchmark are currently 5.8% lower than May 2008.
* There are 43% fewer sales in Metro Vancouver than this time last year.

This was never a surprise to me, given my absolute addiction to every sort of local real estate blog in this city. (I seriously need an intervention.) Surfing around the popular online local real estate community, you can quickly become a bad-news bear. Bloggers like mohican, VHB, freako, solipsist, the pope, and Paul Boesnich have prophesized the coming of the drop way before even the first US markets started to falter. Years ago, there was plenty of opposition from bulls that still believed that this city's fundamentals would drive us into perpetual prosperity. Now the discussions have all turned into debates about how severe the downturn will be, and when the bottom will occur.

On these sites, you'll find every traditional reason for ever increasing real estate prices being shot down in flames. Olympics? Scarce land? Immigration? Rich Asians? Drug trade? Low unemployment? Best place on Earth? Every issue is thoroughly attacked and then some.

It also wasn't long ago that many of these bloggers pointed out that we are truly the most expensive real estate in North America. Simply look what one million buys you here and elsewhere, and you really have to wonder what planet this city's on.

We here at Beyond Robson like to do exactly what our name implies: bring you news that isn't covered in mainstream media. The Vancouver Sun would fire its entire staff Apprentice-style before it ever posted a graph like the one you see above. (Rennie Marketing System's fat multi-million dollar condo advertising machine would pull the plug in an instant given that scenario.) The real estate blogging community is essential to counter the real estate pumping that we are so adamantly used to from characters such as Cameron Muir and Bob Rennie. It always dumbfounds me when the Sun or Province interviews these sort of "experts" who have a significant stake in the local real estate market. (would you ever trust a used-car salesman for his honest opinion on a vehicle's reliability?) People's gullibility and their penchants to "take their word for it" have over the recent years caused irreparable consequences that have significant implications in the economic, political and social realm. Jon's excellent article a few months back touches on some of these issues.

So please, take the time to check out my personal top five local real estate blogs and track how the shit hits the fan.

1. Financial Planning and Personal Sanity
Mohican's in-depth analysis of both Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley's markets are simply the best ever since VHB laid his superlative blog to rest. This is the quintessential site to get yourself acquainted with all of the relevant charts and numbers.

2. Condohype
Look out all you yuppies. This man attacks the hype in the ubiquitous Vancouver condo ad with gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.

3. Paul Boesnich
The most comprehensive day-to-day local numbers from the most honest realtor in this city.

4.Vancouver Condo Info
Links and headlines from local articles and beyond that relate to our condo market.

5. Unreal Estate
The well-spoken solipsist speaks his mind about the whack Vancouver real-estate market.

Image taken from Financial Planning and Personal Sanity.